In the Persian Gulf geopolitical region, many factors have the potential to undermine the region’s political and security stability. Each of these factors has different dimensions and are at different levels. However, the most important factor that constitutes the mental structure throughout the Persian Gulf region is “rivalry” which, as an outlier, overshadows other instability factors. The main question of this research is that what are the causes of instability of the Persian Gulf region and is there a factor that can overshadow other factors and be a major factor in regional instability? The hypothesis of the paper in response to the research question is that several factors have caused instability in the region. However, the most important factor that has the potential to stabilize or destabilize the Persian Gulf region is the “geopolitical system” of the region in which each of the regional political systems is striving to achieve a high place. Multiple security systems are rooted in the geopolitical structure and regional bipolar geopolitical order. Furthermore, they are the root causes of the emergence of the political challenges in the region; on the other hand, changing the geopolitical structure of the region results in the changing of the system of regional security and the regional governments’ foreign policy approach would neutralize the disrupting factors in the region while providing the ground for establishing security and political stability in the region. Employing a descriptive-analytical method the article has used library tools such as books, articles, the internet and interviews with professors and academic elites.
Research Findings
The Political Systems of the Countries Located in the Southern Persian Gulf Region
The Arab countries which border the southern part of the Persian Gulf have a patriarchal and a monarchical political system. This feature is what makes these systems lack democratic legitimacy. The weakness of geopolitical foundations of the Arab countries situated on the southern part of the Persian Gulf, the high proportion of non-Arab immigrants (who migrated to these countries mostly from South and Southeast Asia, such as Bangladesh and Indonesia) comparing to Arab indigenous population; the changing of their texture and demographic density, the lack of a sense of belonging to the national identity within the social fabric of the Arab Persian Gulf countries and prioritizing tribal traditions over national identities and traditions, the monopoly of power in the royal family and the lack of participation of people in political decisions, the widespread and influential activism of state-controlled media that lead to disseminating one-sided news and information in society, as well as supporting the elites and their livelihood by the Arab governments of the region; all in all, have make the governments of these countries seek to shape an “artificial political legitimacy” in order to justify their existence. Creating a closed political environment in their societies, the Arab governments of the region consider no role for their people and political community in the government and the process of decision-making in an attempt to impose their political legitimacy on the international community. Moreover, in order to justify their political legitimacy among people, these governments link the legitimacy of their government to divine legitimacy by merging religion and politics and consider the political community as the mere obedient to this political system while not only denying the people’s right to protest but also forcing the political community to wholeheartedly accept and obey the government.
Exerting pressure on society by the means of religion and the political one-sidedness which is rooted in religious one-sidedness and its effects on the public opinion of the Arab political communities in the Persian Gulf have served as a justification for the widespread corruption in the government of these systems. Furthermore, these governments, while avoiding being held accountable, allow themselves to implement any kind of policy, including economic, social, etc. in society to which people do not have the right to object or make the government responsible.
The closed political space and the negative and ruling ideology of the Sunnis, along with the substantial amounts of oil revenues, have led these governments to seek spreading religious fundamentalism in their societies in order to spread their intended doctrines. Therefore, to achieve this goal and to establish the religion of God in the region and the world, they considered using violence as the only tool. This issue is one of the main components of political instability in the countries of the Persian Gulf region.
The Political System of the Countries Located in the Northern Shore of the Persian Gulf
The states of the northern Persian Gulf region, including the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Islamic Republic of Iraq, are among the democratic governments because of their popular political legitimacy and the type of their systems of governance.
Therefore, their political structure and context do not cause instability and insecurity in the Persian Gulf region, rather it is the foreign policy orientation of these two systems of governance that might lead to the creation of instability in the region. The ideals and goals of the republican governments that are derived from their political thoughts in parallel with the functions of these governments; indicate the specific orientation of the political systems in the northern part of the Persian Gulf region, especially the Islamic Republic of Iran. The main goal of the foreign policy of the Islamic Republic of Iran is to survive in the anarchic international system. Besides, the Islamic Republic of Iran seeks to preserve its territorial integrity, political independence and freedom of action in the international system. Other goals, such as economic development, wealth creation, and spreading the ideology, are seen as the second priority of Iran’s foreign policy because they are fully dependent on ensuring security. The result of these goals, in parallel with the flexibility of the function of the Islamic Republic, has led to the formation of alliances in the region in which the allies have close ties with the political system of the Islamic Republic and also, as the pro-Iran countries are seen a strategic ally for the Islamic Republic of Iran. The strategic allies and supporters who not only maintain and consolidate the regional geopolitical territory of the Islamic Republic of Iran but also their policies (though with some considerations) converge with and follow the regional policies of the Islamic Republic of Iran thus helping to expand this geopolitical territory.
The foreign policy orientation of the Islamic Republic of Iran, which is based on Shi’ah ideology and democracy, intends to establish close ties with the governments of the region, as well as their nations. Familiarity and awareness of the nations of the region with the ideas of the Islamic Republic of Iran have the potential to disrupt the peace and political stability of the countries of the region. The political awareness of the Muslim nations of the region and calling on the governments to recognize their rights have the potential to become a serious demand of the Arab nations of the region, an example of which can be seen in the slogan “bring down the regime” during the first wave of Islamic Awakening. Likewise, this awareness was reflected in the second wave of the Islamic Awakening such that the political structure of some governments in the region underwent special changes by holding popular elections.
These developments took place at a time when Sunni political ideas, which constitute the intellectual framework and ideologies of the patriarchal system of the region’s political systems, strongly resisted any change and rarely accepted changes in the customs and traditions of their predecessors. As in Sunni political thought, the king has unattainable authority and standing up against him would make the person or group deserve punishment in this world and the hereafter. However, this idea underwent a change after the wave of the Islamic Awakening, and the intellectual foundations of the Sunni political current, according to which the king has divine glory and status in every situation, were undermined. The failure and instability of the Sunni mental norms as well as questioning the values they ​​inherited from their predecessors, which at one time was accompanied by the emotional movement of the people of the region and led to the collapse of four political systems in the region; all in all are rooted in a dynamic current within the Shi’ah political thought which has been able to influence the Sunni political community because of the connections that have been established between the Shi’ahs and the Sunni community in recent years.
Regional Equations
The equations of the countries located in the southern part of the Persian Gulf can be interpreted in two ways. One is the microstates of the Persian Gulf region (Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, and Oman) that have neither geographical area and depth nor geopolitical scope. This factor has caused each of these countries to have no political and security deterrent for their country thereby seeking the support of regional and supra-regional powers in order to stabilize and ensure their security. As far as the southern part of the Persian Gulf is concerned, territorial size, geopolitical depth and the type and quality of political systems are three main factors of political and security instability.
The combination of these three components has led the small Arab countries of the Persian Gulf region to act on the basis of defensive realism. The establishment of political and security alliances with regional and supra-regional powers and the presence of supra-regional powers in the region so that the political and security of the microstates on the southern Persian Gulf border are guaranteed show that the policy of the Persian Gulf microstates is based on defensive realism. Therefore, preventing this regional policy has led to the emergence of political conflicts as well as conflicting supra-regional security actions in the region.
Saudi Arabia, unlike the microstates of the southern Persian Gulf littoral, is a large country by area which enjoys a geopolitical depth as well. The combination of these two factors with the monarchical and patriarchal political system of Saudi Arabia, on the one hand, and foreign exchange earnings based on oil revenues, or so-called petrodollars, earned from selling oil to great powers, on the other hand, have caused this country to seek to find legitimacy for its political system.
Making efforts to gain the support of supra-regional powers Saudi Arabia as one of the poles of regional power has sought to play an opposing role in regional security. The combination of multiple factors of geopolitical depth, vast geography and high oil revenues of Saudi Arabia along with the monarchical and patriarchal system in this country, have made this country act on the basis of aggressive realism. Due to enjoying the support of the world powers, especially the United States, Saudi Arabia is considered a traditional US ally in the region. Owing to the unwavering support of the United States Saudi Arabia is pursuing a set of aggressive and separatist policies in the region to ensure its security and increase its power. According to the factors mentioned above, Saudi Arabia has never sought to maintain its territory, rather, it has always pursued the policy of maintaining its security in the first place and tried to show its power to other countries of the region in the second place thereby dominating the microstates of the Persian Gulf and forcing them to stay away from Iran.
Domestic Tensions of the Arab Countries of the Region
The rivalry between the political systems of the countries located in the southern part of the Persian Gulf region takes place in the form of royal family feuds, territorial, border (maritime borders and borders on land) and historical disputes that exist more or less between the countries located in the south margin of the Persian Gulf. Some examples of such conflicts are the sharp escalations in tensions and even the confrontation between Bahrain and Qatar and the conflicts between Saudi Arabia and Qatar including territorial, ideological, and political disputes as well as the tensions arose between the United Arab Emirates and Oman concerning drawing and imposing colonial borders regardless of natural and demographic geography; All imply that the prevailing pattern in relationships of these countries stems from a negative competition for gaining more and more power in the region an exemplification of which is the escalation of the crisis between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates with Qatar, which put an end to the political ties of the two countries with Qatar.
Ideological Conflict in the Region
The ideological conflicts between Iran and Saudi Arabia have gone beyond the political gap which exists between the two countries. These ideological conflicts are used as leverage for increasing the gap between the policy of the two countries. According to the type of perception and the level of analysis carried out by the countries located on the southern coast of the Persian Gulf, the orientation of the foreign policy of the Islamic Republic of Iran is a prelude to creating necessary grounds for the collapse and political instability of Saudi Arabia as well as weakening Saudi Arabia’s ties with its supra-regional allies.
Supra-Regional Equations
Supra-regional equations refer to the presence and quality of relations of supra-regional powers such as the United States of America or institutions (which have military, economic, political, etc. functions) such as NATO in the Persian Gulf region. The supra-regional and global powers have been present in the region with the aim of achieving their own interests, yet their presence has caused instability in the region.
While supporting the monarchical regimes of the region by the international powers and avoiding showing negative reactions to the unilateral actions of their kings and rulers, who play the main role in securing the interests of these powers, those powers neither try to support the democratic movements in the region nor allow the political systems of the region to implement such policies. Although one of the goals of the “New Middle East” or “The Greater Middle East” is to support the formation of democratic societies in the region, yet in the current situation, because of the dependence of the international system on the energy of the Persian Gulf region on the one hand and the high capacity of southern countries of the Persian Gulf for purchasing Western armaments, of which the West derives large revenue, on the other, the supra-regional powers seek to promote and support a kind of “engineered democracy” in the region in an attempt to earn revenues through arms industries and avoid re-experiencing what they faced during their invasion of Afghanistan and Iraq which led to the increase of the influence of Shi’ah intellectual currents and the expansion of its territory as well as the promotion of fundamentalism in the region. Accordingly, they aim to through a calculated and delaying operation achieve this type of democracy in which their interests are guaranteed and their ideals are taken into account..
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