Guadeloupe; A Conference meant to Save Pahlavi II (1)

The Guadeloupe Conference was a gathering held between four Western governments in Guadeloupe, a small island situated where the northeastern Caribbean Sea meets the western Atlantic Ocean. It is considered part of French territory. The governments of France, the United States, the United Kingdom, and Germany participated in this conference. The conference took place in early January 1979. The reasons and motivations for holding such a gathering were clear, one just needed to view the events that were happening in Iran and the world around that time.

In January 1979, following the changing of several governments in the Pahlavi regime and the imposing of martial law, Iran was in a state of turmoil. The press was in disarray, factory workers were on strike, universities were closed, and most domestic and international flights were canceled. Many soldiers had, on the orders of Imam Khomeini, deserted the barracks Daily protests continued, and Azhari replaced Sharif-Emami as the prime minister. However, after the Guadeloupe Conference was held, this military government was also overthrown. Thereafter,  the Shah ordered Bakhtiar to form a cabinet, but he lacked popular support.

Some of the most important global issues of that period included, the coup executed by the communists in Afghanistan, racial violence in South Africa, the military occupation of Cambodia by the Vietnam Army and the formation of the Islamic Republic of Iran. This conference was organized by Valéry Giscard d'Estaing, the then president of France. Hosting Imam Khomeini was the main reason for organizing such a conference by France. The president of France could not believe that the Shah had no place in Iran to keep him. For this reason, he described the reports of the French ambassador regarding the Shah’s definite departure from the country as being pessimistic. Therefore, he sent Michel Poniatowski, who was a friend of the Shah, to Tehran to report on the developments in Iran. After analyzing the reports provided by Poniatowski and the ambassador, Giscard immediately invited the three Western leaders to Guadeloupe; these leaders were as follows: James Callaghan (Prime Minister of the United Kingdom), Helmut Schmidt (Chancellor of West Germany), Jimmy Carter (President of the United States) together with Zbigniew Brzezinski (US National Security Advisor).

In a report written by Poniatowski, we read: “The Shah has said: I am left alone on the political stage, and they have abandoned me. I ask myself if they have turned their backs on me in the field of foreign policy as well. Are there conspiracies against me in the West? Did they decide to abandon me? Don’t they think that I have passed the point of no return? If this is the case, it is better that you inform me right now so that I can make the necessary decisions. The Americans say that they would support me in any case, but I know that there are serious doubts about such a claim.” Furthermore, talking about how the Shah admitted that his regime had failed in managing the country’s affairs, Poniatowski adds: “The Shah admitted making mistakes in the past year and said that if it were not for these mistakes, we would not have reached this point. However, in addition to corruption, there are causes for the current situation, some of which are: Iran was impetuously trying to adopt Westernization measures, yet it did not make the necessary preparations, like those done by Atatürk in his country; and the revival of the religious life of the Shia clerical institution, which has a longstanding enmity with the imperial dynasty, led to the emergence of power rivalries.” Accordingly, the leaders of the West, while realizing the Shah’s despair, believed that he could no longer run the country and, therefore, they had to make a new plan concerning Iran. According to the reports, the most important discussions and decisions of the Guadeloupe Conference were as follows: “In the beginning, Giscard asked Callaghan to provide the heads of states with an update on the situation of the Shah and Iran. Callaghan, based on the report given to him by the British ambassador in Iran, described the situation in Iran as critical and said, ‘The Shah is no longer capable of controlling the situation. There is no real solution to replace him. The remaining political figures have limited capabilities and authority. Moreover, most of them have had connections and affiliations with the regime. Can the army play a transitional role? No, the army lacks political experience, and its commanders are loyal to the Shah.”

Then the president of France, given his ambassador’s report, encouraged the attending presidents to support the Shah. In his view, the danger of the Shah’s downfall and the possibility of Soviet intervention in Iran were the most important factors that the West had to take into account. He added that the Shah had asked him to take joint action in order to counter Soviet interference. In his opinion, it was necessary for the leaders to send a warning to the Soviet Union, so that it would realize they were concerned about the situation. He believed that although the Shah was alone, he was the only force standing against the religious movement. He also believed that given the economic crisis the Iranian middle-class faced, the Shah could use this opportunity to his advantage in the future. Following on from this, the president of the United States said, “The situation in Iran has completely changed. Shah cannot stay any longer. The people of Iran no longer want him, and there is no qualified statesman left in Iran willing to cooperate with him. But there is no need to be worried; the military forces are ready. They will seize power. Most Iranian military commanders have studied in our schools, and they know our military commanders and chiefs well. They even call each other by their first names.”

The attendees at the meeting were surprised and wondered whether the relationship between Iranian and American officers was really effective. Witnessing their incredulous looks, Carter continued, “Believe me! That’s what I said. Rest assured; they are close friends. I have talked about this matter with our generals. They address each other by their first names.”

Later in the afternoon, the president of the United States had a phone conversation with Cyrus Vance, the US Secretary of State. Apparently, Iranian military personnel had told Sullivan, the last US ambassador to Iran, that they had decided to take action. They had threatened to prevent the Shah from leaving the country and were ready to suppress the opponents of the regime. Cyrus Vance and Walter Mondale, who held a meeting together, warned the military forces against taking such actions. However, Carter and his national security advisor, Brzezinski, had different opinions. Brzezinski stated, “This is something that must be done. If we prevent them from taking action at this time when the Shah and the military forces have decided to act, we will take on a great historical responsibility.” The United States sought to support the Bakhtiar government. Carter asked Sullivan, the US ambassador to Tehran, to ask the Shah’s view on this matter and prevent him from leaving the country in this situation. Carter believed that there were other ways to prevent the Islamic Revolution from happening, but his advisor, Brzezinski, favored executing a coup. Finally, Shah said a coup would weaken the Bakhtiar government and that it would be better for him to leave the country.

On the same day, Vance suggested to Carter that, in order to deal with the objections raised by the revolutionaries, the United States should contact Ayatollah Khomeini. In response, Brzezinski said, “This action will demoralize the army and military forces.”

During the conference, the Western governments discussed the coup and the opposition to the Pahlavi regime, but the more they talked the fewer conclusions they reached, because the situation in Iran had confused them. Finally, the Guadeloupe Conference ended on January 7, 1979. Vance, the US Secretary of State, acting as the conference’s spokesperson, told the media, “The Shah intends to spend his vacation outside of Iran, and the United States also confirms this decision. The United States feels that the Shah can no longer play a role regarding the future of Iran.”