The predictions of the impacts of Iran’s Islamic Revolution on the Middle East region

Introduction

The Islamic Revolution that took place in 1979 has had several impacts in the Middle East region due to different reasons. First of all, the revolution that took place in Iran was a great and an all-inclusive revolution that conforms with the definition of a revolution and it is comparable to the Russian and French revolutions. Secondly, it has an international, transnational and human plea and the suffix (Islamic) of the Iranian Revolution also creates this expectation. Thirdly, the national strategic position, the Iranian military strategy, its sensitive regional location; that is the Persian Gulf and the Middle East region has led to the fact that any systematic reforms in Iran will have consequences within the region. In this case, examining the impacts of this great revolution and its theoretical explanation beyond the simple description and presenting objective evidence becomes an academic concern. All this is while the impacts of the Islamic Revolution are linked to the title “prediction” and raises this question; how are the impacts of the Islamic Revolution related to the topic of prediction?

How is it possible to make your perception tangible and objective in regards to the case of the Islamic Revolution in the topic of prediction in the humanities in contrast to the modern sciences? How can looking into the future be revealed in a case such as the phenomenon of the Islamic Revolution and its impacts? This research asserts that if you are examining the reasons or analyzing the impacts of the Islamic Revolution on the Muslim countries and the international system, then this comprehensive discussion can be summarized in a small sample entitled “prediction.” The hypothesis is that contrary to the surprisal in regards to the establishment of the Islamic Revolution, the Western and regional politicians took measures to thwart and disrupt the condition of realization of the future impacts of the establishment of the Islamic Revolution which were predicted by the political pundits which they deemed detrimental to their interests. The independent variable is the prediction of these impacts by the scholars and their obvious announcement. The dependent variable is the lack of realization of these predictions and disrupting the actual occurrence and all-inclusive predictions or decreasing the impacts or delaying the realization of some of these impacts and changing the nature of these impacts.

1) The Islamic Revolution and the prediction of its impacts

The reality and several pieces of evidence prove that the United States and the West have been surprised by the establishment of the Islamic Revolution. The fall of the powerful regime of the Shah was unexpected. According to them, they never saw any conducive environment for the establishment of a revolution in Iran and the assessment of the political experts also supported this view of stability. In his famous speech during his visit to Iran on December 22, 1977, a year before the Islamic Revolution, Jimmy Carter, the president of the United States during that time, praised Iran as an ‘island of stability.’ He said: “Due to the sovereign leadership of the Shah, Iran is an island of stability in one of the most troublesome regions in the world.” (Moasseseh-ye Sureh, 1998, page 109). Despite the influence and comprehensive activities of the biggest intelligence agencies of the world in Iran including the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the Mossad Intelligence Agency of Israel, the Secret Intelligence Service of the United Kingdom and the KGB (Committee for State Security) of the Soviet Union, none of them was able to predict the establishment of the revolution. (Mohammadi, 2001, page 6-17).

In the summer of 1978 and on the verge of the establishment of the revolution, the CIA reported that other than Iran not being in a revolutionary position, it does not also have an environment ready for the establishment of a revolution. Even the intelligence Agency of the Ministry of Defence in 1978 predicted that the Shah will continue to powerfully rule Iran in the next ten years. (Moenes, 1991, page 217) (Lenczowski, 1992, page 64). On the verge of the revolution and in the 1970s, the American governors and political experts did not believe in the possibility of an establishment of an Islamic Revolution in Iran and thus did not hold any discussion to make a decision in regards to that.

The most important matter in this case study is that the Western experts and politicians were unable to predict the establishment of the Islamic Revolution and due to this fact, they were dumbfounded and were thus unable to take any measure to stop its establishment. Nonetheless, the subtle matter is that contrary to the establishment of the revolution, in the case of its influence and spreading to other countries, they also had enough time to take into consideration the impacts and predict the influence of the revolution. They also had the experiences of other revolutions; for instance, they were thinking about the regional influences of the French Revolution on the Middle East region countries and even on the political ideologies and systems of the Arab world. They also had more time and power to create disturbance in order to thwart the conventional process of events and impacts as expected. (Khouri, 1973, page 83)

On a special note, the Islamic Revolution took place in Iran, however, its impacts were in other political units and out of the will of the Iranian agents. Owing to this fact, in the humanities and the discussion regarding the impacts of the Islamic Revolution, the following things must be done:

Firstly: The experts should conduct research, explain the present situation and predict the future of the incidents and processes.

Secondly: Their positive and negative impacts and results should be evaluated by the experts and especially the related parties.

Thirdly: By considering the role of the prediction and bearing in mind the implicit results in different situations, the suffering side struggles as much as possible to thwart that danger that will make him suffer.

In regards to the Islamic Revolution and its impacts on the Muslim world, this theoretical discussion is the right way. Such a great revolution in Iran, that has been frequently confessed by several scholars and politicians took place in the twentieth century. (refer to Khorramshad, 2002; Salar, 1999; Hashmatzadeh, 2006, page 292-300). The Islamic Revolution in Iran with the slogan “Neither East nor West, the Islamic Republic” achieved victory and established this slogan as its policy in the foreign policy. Based on this, they explicitly rejected the Eastern and Western superpowers and presented the religion of Islam as a serious rival against socialism and capitalism. This revolution and its intensified propaganda created a fundamental fear in the Western countries and sounded a warning alarm. This is because, for the first time after the fall of the Ottoman Empire, the preliminaries of the emergence of an Islamic power or movement appeared. (Asadi, 2006, page 425). The views of the politicians regarding this matter are very interesting to read. (Mohammadi, 1991, page 16-17)

Leonid Ilyich Brezhnev, the fifth leader of the Soviet Union and the General Secretary of the Central Committee of the governing Communist Party of that country, announced the revival of Islam as the most vital political incident of the twentieth century and the Islamic Revolution as the real and direct threat in the southern borders of the Soviet Republics.

While enumerating the things threatening the interests of the United States in the Middle East region, Henry Kissinger, the main consultant of foreign policy and a member of the foreign relations Association of the United States, considered the most significant of them to come from Iran’s Islamic Revolution and referred to it as a nightmare for the neighbouring countries.

Moshe Dayan, the former foreign minister of Israel, declared the Islamic Revolution as an earthquake in the region. In regards to this, King Hussein of Jordan considered this to be the worst ever situation in the region. He offered his prediction by saying: “This movement is being led from Tehran and just like a turbulent wave, it can sweep away all the regimes in the Middle East region and bring atrocity to the region.”

Margaret Thatcher, the former Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, expresses her predictions regarding the threats of the Islamic Revolution with the superpower culture of Iran as follows: “We are not afraid of the weapons of mass destruction from the Soviets since we are also armed with the modern and better-developed weapons. However, we are afraid of the presence of the Islamic culture of Iran’s Islamic Revolution.” (Islamic Propagation Organization, 1984, page 116)

They predicted that this revolution will have impacts in the Middle East region countries, the Muslim world and the third world countries. This prediction is based on their comprehensive scientific studies and research. The most interesting thing is that they made efforts to make predictions regarding the impacts of the Islamic Revolution. They also went ahead by trying to render futile those predictions and took measures to thwart the realization of those impacts that they had predicted!

They realized from these predictions that in case of rendering them futile and a lack of interference from a foreign country and a change in the international and regional system, the Islamic Revolution will spread to the whole of the Middle East region. Consequently, it will definitely influence the ideological, social, political and economic structure of this community. For example, based on his own research, Fred Holliday believes that the neighbouring countries of a place where a revolution has occurred, by considering the common threat of the revolutionary values for all of them, will all converge to stand against it. They will also take measures to prevent the spread of that. (Holliday, 1997).

This was their prediction in regards to Iran’s Islamic Revolution by taking into consideration the experience of the French and Russian revolutions. Nonetheless, the realization of this prediction was a great threat to their cultural, civilizational and economic interests. Consequently, the establishment and the propagation of the revolution was very unwelcome to them. They thus made the above-mentioned predictions and struggled to thwart the realization of those predictions. The speech of William Quandt, a member of the Security Council of the United States during the time of President Jimmy Carter, proves this matter:

“Iran’s Islamic Revolution has scared Washington from the fact that its waves can spread to the Persian Gulf countries. We have therefore decided to create a security structure within and around the borders of the Arabian Peninsula. This is to make sure that Iran’s Islamic Revolution will not spread to the other countries.” (Quandt, 1993, page 64).

A great investment from the West, the United States and the conservative governments in the region during the imposed war and its continuous siege and the containment of the revolution are understandable in this regard. They strived to prevent the establishment of Iran’s Islamic Revolution from the beginning or to severely control it and prevent its waves and power and it seems that they succeeded greatly in this matter. According to the belief of many political analysts, the Iran-Iraq War led to the stoppage of the spread of the ideology of the establishment of the revolution and the influence of the Islamic Revolution on Iraq.

2) The strategies and measures taken to disrupt the process of the impacts of the revolution

The prediction of the influence of the Middle East region countries from the Islamic Revolution became effective. The reason is that the elites of these countries just like the Western investors who prevented the realization of the prediction of Marx struggled to prevent the establishment of a revolution or comprehensive social changes to take place in their countries and so they took measures to prevent this from happening.

1. Measures such as the extensive reshuffle of the political elites can be related to the establishment of the Islamic Revolution due to their temporal simultaneity. For instance, the power transfer from Hasan al-Bakr to Saddam Hussein in Iraq. A military coup in Turkey or even the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan or in general, the severe crackdowns on opponents included being arrested, imprisoned, executed and being sent to exile.
2. Proving these influences on their own needs a separate discussion in itself. At times, the proof is by means of the information, speeches and direct confessions from the agents and at times, the proof is in a non-direct way from the logical inferences and views of the political experts. (Hashmatzadeh, 2006, page 292). The views of the political experts and the consensus or the views of most of them on a particular topic are proof of its precision. Of course, precision from the perspective of the humanities explains and proves the claim. To cite an example, different political experts, such as Manouchehr Mohammadi, talk about the great fear of the Turkish government from the establishment of an Islamic Revolution in their country. They had a great concern for the spread of Islamism stemming from Iran’s Islamic Revolution and also the disintegration of Kurdistan in the event of the fall of the revolution in Iran. In reality, the Islamic Revolution in a kind of way showed the importance of the military in that country. The military coup in 1980 exactly one year after Iran’s Islamic Revolution was supported by the foreign allies. And the three-year military rule that had never been experienced before from the two previous coups in this country before the Islamic Revolution is a reason proving the claim that there is a relation between the 1980 coup in Turkey and the prevention of the predictions of the influence of Iran’s Islamic Revolution. (Mohammadi, 1991, page 379; Pourinab, 2000)

 

3. Another form of measures taken by the rulers was in the form of opening the political space and mending the terrible gaps between the masses and the governors. Indeed, the Islamic Revolution revealed this dormant gap of these regimes with their people. The governors realized that with the political awareness of the people stemming from the Islamic Revolution and following the example of Iran, there is a probability that they will have the same fate as the Shah of Iran.

In the course of establishing the relationship between the weak country in the Muslim countries and the enhancement of the influence of the Islamic Revolution, Martin, considers the influence of the Islamic Revolution to be great on Afghanistan and Lebanon due to this reason. Likewise, he also puts into consideration the reactions of different countries like Egypt, Libya, Syria, Algeria and Saudi Arabia and the rest of the countries in the Persian Gulf before the Islamic Revolution. In another general principle, he establishes the relation between the presence of the big social gap and the acceptance of the message of seeking justice of the Islamic Revolution. (Martin, 2002, page 188-190)

Owing to this fact, they strived to offer their people a kind of relative service; For instance, the measures taken by Saudi Arabia in the al-Ahsa region and the areas mostly occupied by the Shi’ahs which were the most deprived regions in that country. According to Akbarzadeh and Mansouri, from the time of the establishment of Iran’s Islamic Revolution in 1979 until now, the regimes in support of the United States in the region have been suffering from the message and influence of this revolution and thus immunity measures and guided reforms are on the agenda. (Akbarzadeh, 2007, page 25). Due to this, we are witnessing the formation of civic and advisory bodies in most of these countries that are following Iran’s Islamic Revolution. For example, the Kuwaiti parliament and granting women the right to vote in elections or the formation of the consultative assembly in Saudi Arabia and the consideration of the Shi’ahs of Iraq by Saddam Hussein and declaring the day of the birth of Imam Ali (a) a national holiday by the regime. (Martin, 2002, page 193)

4. Another part of their measures appeared in the form of adhering to the Islamic slogans and they struggled by this means too to annihilate the feelings of threats of value in the community. Therefore, by reforming their behaviour towards their own people, the political system of the region strived to annihilate the grounds of discontent. In reality, this was the greatest impact and favour of Iran’s Islamic Revolution for the people in the Middle East region whereby it pushed their leaders to take some steps forward towards democracy.
5. Out of all these cases, the most vital of all was the imposing of the full-scale war against Iran by the Ba’thist party of Iraq representing the Anti-Islamic Revolutionary Front from 1980-1988. Indeed, this Revolutionary Front was organized by the Americans and the Soviets to an extent and also some regimes within the region who had predicted this imminent matter that firstly, Iraq will be the country that will be threatened with the influence of Iran’s Islamic Revolution. This was due to the fact that it was its neighbouring country and also the favourable religious condition with the prevailing number of the Shi’ahs. (Barzegar, 2003). Secondly, in the case of the transition of the Islamic Revolution via Iraq, this country will play a significant role in propagating the Islamic Revolution and the message of Iran’s Islamic Revolution will be promulgated to the other countries of the Middle East region without the stumbling block of the Persian language. (Barzegar, 2003; Abdul-Nasir, 2001, page 27).

Most of the political analysts in the Middle East region consider Iran’s Islamic Revolution to have short-term or long-term impacts on the Middle East region (Hinnesbusch, 1988, page 202-203; Eddin, 2002, page 69; Martin, page (188- 197). And these impacts have had an increasing trend in different forms. However, with the incident of the Iran-Iraq War, these impacts were slowed or thwarted and some were turned into negative impacts. The Iran-Iraq War revealed the identity gap between the Shi’ahs and Sunnis, the Arabs and non-Arabs and the decreasing factor of the impacts of Iran’s Islamic Revolution. (Abdul-Nasir, 2001, page 27-29). Manouchehri Mohammadi also emphasizes this view that with the passing of two years after the victory of Iran’s Islamic Revolution, the first support from the Muslim Brotherhood in relations to Iran was reduced.

He considers one of the reasons for the decline of this relationship to be the beginning of the war between Iran and Iraq and its continuity. This is because a group of people within the Muslim Brotherhood viewed Iran’s Islamic Revolution as a Shi’ah and a non-Arab revolution who were seeking the control of the whole Muslim world. So, they published books against the Shi’ahs and opposed the Islamic Revolution. (Mohammadi, 2001, page 280)

By paying heed to the common points of the two countries and the favourable conditions for accepting the message of Iran’s Islamic Revolution, Hashmatzadeh too, believes that the war between Iran and Iraq is a clear and military offensive to the centre of the Islamic Revolution with the aim of destroying it. (Hashmatzadeh, 2006, page 86)

Seyfzadeh has also examined the relationship between the war and the inhibition of the revolution in different means. Based on this, they used all their power in supporting Iraq against Iran in order to prevent what they had predicted!

Khadduri, an Iraqi orientalist researcher even said that the prediction of the natural impacts of Iran’s Islamic Revolution and also the orientation measures taken by Iran in the establishment of the revolution and the biased realization of this prediction was the cause of the war. (Khadduri, 1988, page 46-116)

Archive of The Thought of the Islamic Revolution