Today, “emerging terrorism” is one of the new geopolitical players in the region, whose dynamics and acting subtleties should be studied mainly by scientific methods.
Analyzing Iran’s Regional Power
The first step in analyzing Iran’s power in the region requires attaining a good understanding of the Middle East region. The reason for the significance of this region in global equations lies in various factors such as energy, strategic waterways, the existence of the Israeli regime, the consumption market, etc. as far as the definition of the Middle East is concerned, this region as a geopolitical phenomenon in West Asia represents a special type of actions and reactions, cultural and religious inconsistencies with disputed geographical borders and different political regimes.
Also, the unique geographical position of this region serves as a bridge between the three continents of Asia, Europe and Africa. In addition, the existence of 60% of the known oil reserves and 35% of the world’s gas resources in the Middle East, is another factor that has led to the importance of this region. At the same time, Iran is ranked 17th in the world in terms of population and territory. It is the second-largest country and has the largest population
in the Middle East. Being located in the southwest of Asia, Iran has a privileged geostrategic position to supply energy to other countries, and due to its potential, such as its geopolitical position, abundant gas resources and geographical proximity to the open seas and the strategic Strait of Hormuz, it has an exclusive position in supplying oil and gas to Asian countries compared to other competing countries like Turkmenistan, Qatar and Russia.
Self-Imaging of Iran’s Regional Power
The victory of the Islamic Revolution of Iran in 1979 created this feeling among many Iranians that in order to compensate for the failures of Iran’s history, the ideals of the past should be expressed with more emotion and intensity. From this point of view, although it seems that the Iranian Revolution was founded on Shi’ah Islam, the evidence shows that the Islamic Republic, without merely focusing on the issue of Shi’ism, has helped many revolutionary movements in the world or at least expressed sympathy with them.
Also, the theory of “Umm al-Qura (the core of the nations of the Islamic world)” one of the important theoretical foundations of the foreign policy of the Islamic Republic at the beginning of the Revolution, is another evidence stressing this mentality of the country’s leaders since the beginning of the Revolution that Iran would become a regional and even trans-regional power.
Iran is at the starting point of a new era of civilization-building, which distinguishes the country in a way that it would be inspiring in the Islamic world, a leader in the region and an effective actor in the international arena.
The Views of Others on Iran’s Regional Power
International organizations and institutions must pay attention to the strength of Iran’s regional power. The US National Intelligence Council published a report titled “Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World.” According to this 120-page report, which is the result of a one-year-long research project carried out by American experts, in the next two coming decades, Iran will join the ranks of major world powers.
In a report entitled “Iran’s Unstoppable March Towards Dominance,” the American National Interest database analyzes the Middle East and writes: “Today, the rise of Iran is less of a political topic to debate and more of a reality to recognize. Compared to its Middle Eastern neighbours, Iran has made impressive strides in space technology in the past few years, taking big steps in space technologies; has emerged as a cyber power on the level of China or Russia; and has achieved significant advances in military hardware production.”
Iran’s Power of Activism and Influence of Regional Power
al-Sharq al-Awsat, a newspaper published in London, addressed this issue in an article written by Tariq Hamid, the editorial secretary: “The power in Iraq mainly is in the hands of Shi’ah parties who establish the government as well, and Iran has a great influence in this country, both politically and militarily.”
In addition, today, Iran’s sphere of influence is not limited to the Middle East region and has been extended to other parts of the world. However, as far as the strategy Iran pursues with respect to its regional influence is concerned, it should be emphasized that Iran’s influence is mainly rooted in the sources related to soft power, and the influence of the Islamic Republic in the region is a discursive one different from the Western hegemony.
Direct Military and Security Threats Against Iran
The emergence of terrorist groups provides the basis for increasing the number of military bases of extra-regional powers, which naturally increases the costs of providing security for Iran in the long term.
The training of terrorists in the countries of the region and the deployment of troops along with conducting limited operations inside the country are also other security threats that have been posed by ISIL, so in recent years, the Ministry of Intelligence of the Islamic Republic of Iran on several occasions has neutralized the various suicide operations of ISIL-affiliated groups and Takfiris in important cities. At the same time, the attacks of ISIL and other Takfiri groups on Iranian nationals abroad could be considered another threat posed by this terrorist group. Furthermore, the destruction of the Holy Shrines in Iraq by Takfiris has become a major concern for the Islamic Republic of Iran, and the holy places of Shi’ah Muslims in Iraq and Syria have permanently been attacked by Takfiris terrorists.
Terrorism and Meta-Geopolitical Threats Against Iran
Syria’s geographic position at the center of the Middle East, being the connecting point of the three continents of Asia, Europe and Africa, and its proximity to the Mediterranean Sea, Lebanon, Iraq, Turkey and the Zionist regime are among the features that give great importance to this country. Takfiri groups, led by ISIL, have initiated a war in this country for several years, and their efforts to overthrow the Assad government can have serious consequences for Iran. Especially since Syria has always been among the governments that support the positions of Hamas and Hezbollah. However, the more important reason that should be emphasized in addition to the Axis of Resistance is Iran’s influence in this country. With the victory of the Islamic Revolution, the Alevi government of Syria, which up until then did not have much ideological affinity with Iran, recognized the Iranian Revolution and the new government, and hence the mutual needs and being on the anti-Israel front significantly deepened the relations between the two countries. In the Iran-Iraq war, Syria openly supported Iran and prevented the war from turning into an Iranian-Arab conflict.
The Salafis always try to weaken the role Islam plays in the sphere of influence of the Islamic Revolution and undermine the centrality of Shi’ah in the region thereby inciting the Sunni public opinion against the Shi’ah Muslims. They have also sought to create a kind of contrast between Iranian and Arab cultures in order to form a negative mentality toward Iran.
Iran’s Regional Rivals Policy of Following Takfiri Terrorist Groups
Iran’s regional rivals, including Turkey and Saudi Arabia, are trying to reduce Iran’s influence in the region by backing Takfiri groups or what Stephen Walt calls the “bandwagoning” policy. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia, which has access to the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea, possesses a quarter of the world’s oil reserves, having the Ka’bah as the qiblah for all Muslims and enjoying its cultural and material benefits, has a special geopolitical position and is considered the most important regional rival for Iran. Saudi Arabia has mostly adopted a hostile approach towards Iran since the victory of the Islamic Revolution. After the US invasion of Afghanistan and Iraq, the collapse of the Taliban and Saddam regimes, two ideological enemies of Iran, was seen as a big defeat for Saudi Arabia, which after the withdrawal of the United States from Iraq became complete and went public. Therefore, in the wake of the crisis in Syria and the empowerment of terrorist forces in Iraq, Saudi Arabia, by backing terrorist groups, sought to pursue its most important objective i.e., preventing the expansion of Iran’s influence in the region. Because the Saudis believe that Tehran has taken four Arab capitals, namely Baghdad, Damascus, Beirut and Sanaa.
In the meantime, according to the website “al-Masalah” (almasala.com), Turki ibn Bandar ibn Muhammad ibn Abdul-Rahman Al Saud, one of the descendants of the former king of Saudi Arabia, who is considered to be an opponent of Al Saud as well, says: there is a special section in the Ministry of Intelligence of Saudi Arabia called Rawafidh, which has a budget equal to the total budget of Tunisia, Jordan and Yemen and is responsible for distorting the image of Shi’ah.
Another country that seeks to limit Iran’s sphere of influence thereby presenting itself as a key power in the Middle East is Turkey. According to the ideas of Ahmet Davutoğlu, the former Prime Minister of Turkey and the architect of the famous strategy of “Strategic Depth,” Turkey’s foreign policy is unbalanced and has forgotten the former Ottoman territory, namely the Middle East and North Africa, with giving too much emphasis on Europe and the United States. In his view, Turkey is a central country that should rule over a vast territory.
Ankara is extremely dissatisfied with Iran’s role in strengthening the governments of Iraq and Syria and therefore pursues its regional goals, including weakening Iran’s regional position, by supporting Takfiri terrorists. This matter was so important for Turkey that this country while shooting down the Russian plane that had bombed ISIL outposts, by supporting terrorists exposed itself to the Russian sanctions for a long time.
Reference: Quarterly of Political Strategic Studies. Vol 6, No. 22, Fall 2017, Pp 41-67.
Archive of The Enemies of the Islamic Revolution
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